A Prognostic Score for Patients with Acute Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndromes Undergoing Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation

Abstract 

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (SCT) has the potential to cure patients with acute leukemia or myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), but a number of prognostic factors can influence the outcome of transplantation. At present, no transplantation-specific risk score exists for this patient population. We propose a simple scoring system for patients with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), or MDS, based on a retrospective analysis of 445 patients undergoing SCT at our institution (divided into training and validation subsets). The score depends on 5 variables: age, disease, stage at transplantation, cytogenetics, and pretransplantation ferritin. It divides patients into 3 groups of comparable size, with 5-year overall survival (OS) of 56% (low risk), 22% (intermediate risk), and 5% (high risk). This prognostic score could be useful in making treatment decisions for individual patients, in stratifying patients entering clinical trials, and in adjusting transplantation outcomes across centers under the new federal reporting rules.

Key Words: Allogeneic stem cell transplantation, Acute myeloid leukemia, Acute lymphoblastic leukemia, Myelodysplastic syndrome, Cytogenetics, Iron overload